Sports Bet Montana opened the line at Griz by 34.5 on Tuesday morning. By Tuesday night the board said 40.5. Thursday it still said 40.5, and a national book agreed. We can also imply odds from the well-known computer rankings models: Massey makes it 31.5 and Sagarin 24. The computers think the book is nine to sixteen points too generous to us. I don't. The two data points are 0-54 and 7-63, and I expect the third blowout in a row and a cover.

Montana is No. 2 in the coaches poll and No. 3 in the media poll, the only poll the media ever cites, for reasons the media can explain. Saturday counts for nothing, by the way, as far as the Big Sky Conference is concerned. Montana plays ten of the twelve other Big Sky members this year, and this is the one that stays out of the standings, scheduled before Southern Dixie Tech joined the league. Had we lost, it would certainly have entered the conversation. When we win, it helps not at all. Such it is for the Grizzlies. Weather: 62 and a five-mile-an-hour east wind at kickoff. A perfect fall day, for one team.

GrizFanPod mentioned this column four times this week, which I appreciated, and one of the four helped me realize I need to explain my benchmarking percentiles. Fair enough. Here it is with a picture.

Every rate in this column is measured against every FCS team's full 2025 season, all 129 of them. When Montana's offensive success rate sits above the 95th percentile, it is better than 95 percent of the seasons any FCS team put together last year. That is outstanding, and there's no softer word for it. The same scale runs the other way for Southern Dixie Tech: below the 5th means worse than 95 of every 100 FCS seasons. Two games against Montana State and BYU explain part of that. Saturday isn't going to help.

Success rate is the share of snaps that gained enough to stay on schedule, and Montana's splits cleanly. On standard downs (first down, second-and-7-or-less, third-and-4-or-less) the Griz have succeeded on 57 of 87 snaps, 65.5 percent, nineteen points above the FCS median. On passing downs (off-schedule) it is only 9 of 39, 23.1 percent, 6.5 points below it. Second-and-8-or-more is the whole of it: 3 of 19. First-and-ten has been fine. The snap after a bad first down has not.

Let's look at when the Griz use our star. Overall team run rate by down is ordinary: 48 percent on first, 55 on second, 17 on third. Eli's share is not. He has touched the ball on 20 of Montana's 58 first downs and 13 of 40 second downs, a third of the offense on the downs where the field is wide, and on 2 of 24 third downs. Against the 36 FCS backs who carried a load like his last season, that third-down share is the 3rd percentile. The two times they asked: third-and-4, caught it for eight; third-and-2, ran for five. Two for two.

The third downs go to Lekeldrick Bridges, six of the 24, and Landon Ransom-Goelz, five, eleven of 24 to two receivers who are fourth and fifth on the team in usage. One honest limit: this measures who was involved in the play, not who was on the field. It measures who Ah Yat is looking at.

Eli is the most-used skill player on the roster and the most productive, +0.62 predicted points per play and +22.4 for the season (every time he touches it, it adds 0.62 points to our expected point total), with Brooks Davis next +10.9 on the year. The most-used guys are the most productive guys, which sounds obvious until you meet an offense where it isn't true. Southern Dixie Tech's two most efficient pass-catchers are ninth and fourteenth in usage, and its most-used skill player averages 2.3 yards a carry.

In the open field, Montana runs on 35 percent of its snaps, fifteen points below the league. Inside the twenty it runs on 73 percent, and on goal to go 69. A 37-point swing toward the run once the field gets short, and success doesn't drop with it: 52 percent in the open field, 5 of 11 in the red zone, 11 of 16 goal to go. Then the fringe, the 21-to-40 band where drives die league-wide because the field goal is already priced in. The median FCS offense loses expected points there. Montana gains them. Southern Dixie Tech's defense has not performed well in any zone, which doesn't bode well for the foe.

Line yards credit the blocking with the first chunk of every carry and discount what the back does after that. Montana is at 3.74 a carry, past the 95th percentile of 2025 FCS seasons (3.40) and better than the 2023 team (3.39) or last year's (2.75). Our backs are hit at or behind the line on one carry in eight. One sack allowed in 70 dropbacks. Disruption suffered (sacks, runs for a loss, interceptions and lost fumbles, over our own snaps) is 4.0 percent, lower than any FCS team managed over a full season last year. PFF has the pass blocking at 98.1, No. 1 in the country, per Sammy Akem's post this week.

One thing to watch. Montana has only had one run of 15 yards or more in 56 carries, Eli's 29-yarder against Southern Utah, and the long run against Drake was 13. We have a great line and we aren't getting the big runs. Something to monitor.

The defense has a new coordinator and a new scheme, so the comparison to last year is the interesting one even at two games. Stuff rate, the share of opponent carries stopped at or behind the line: 29.4 percent, against 21.4 in 2023 and 16.5 last year, past the 95th percentile of the league. True rush allowed, sacks stripped out: 4.66 a carry, against 4.36 and 5.07. Net yards per dropback allowed: 4.98, against 5.48 and 6.49, below the 2025 5th percentile. Disruption generated: 8.4 percent, against 11.1 and 10.0.

Sack rate is the one to monitor. Three sacks in 101 dropbacks, 3.0 percent, against 5.8 in 2023 and 6.5 last year, though two of the three were strip sacks, which we'll take all day long. This group is winning on first contact and on the back end and almost nothing behind the line. It is trending closer to the 2023 defense than the 2025 one, which is a good thing. Two games. Early. Positive.

Montana's drives have started at its own 35, opponents' at their own 25. Read it again: every drive of the season has needed ten fewer yards than the opponent. Ten yards a possession before we run play. Surely that's hurting our points? Oh right, you dont get any points for yards.

Once inside the 40, Montana has scored 4.87 points a trip and allowed 2.38, so we want to start as close to there as we can. No FCS baseline exists for either figure, so they print as levels, and the level is lopsided. This is part of why the yardage gap has looked narrow to people who count yards. You don't get any points for yards. I'll keep saying it.

The two-deep is essentially the same this week. The one change I noted is the other Beaner twin moving into the starting nickel, which matters immensely to the Brother Index, which we will get to later. And I think the Mustardettes are gunning for a shutout. Last week's late touchdown against the twos surely twisted their mustaches.

Last year's team was a bottom-quartile offense attached to a median defense, and it went 2-10 in the United Athletic Conference. Its run game averaged 4.44 a carry with median line yards and a better-than-median stuff rate. Its defense allowed 43.4 percent success and 6.23 net yards a dropback, both within a whisker of the FCS median, and generated disruption at 9.6 percent, essentially the league average. It played four Big Sky teams in 2025 and lost all four, three of them by a touchdown or less.

Then it lost most of that team. Over half the roster is new, and eight of last year's top thirteen tacklers are gone, one of them to Missoula (Nui Tovey, now a Griz edge). Line yards fell from 2.93 to 1.82, worse than any FCS team-season in 2025. The defense has stuffed three runs in two games and allowed 6.05 a carry with the sacks out, and ten touchdowns have been scored on the 32 snaps opponents have taken inside their 25. They can't stop the run, and Montana is going to pound them from the fringe in. That's really all that needs be said.

On offense, the numbers say what the film would say. Southern Dixie Tech lines up in a four-down front and plays zone behind it. We will run it from the fringe in, where Eli already takes most of the snaps, against a front that allows a chunk play nearly 20% of the time in that part of the field. We need Ah Yat throwing on first down, where this offense lives and dies.

On defense, the visitors are an 11 and 12 personnel team run out of the shotgun. They have taken 77 percent of their snaps down 17 or more, oof. Bronson Barben gets the start at QB. Their kicking game was supposed to be the one edge, and it's gone: two return touchdowns allowed in two games, a blocked punt against Montana State and a 100-yard kickoff return at BYU, and no returns of their own in either game. I'd like to see one of ours get loose.

I hope Hashim Jones is healthy, because we haven't seen him yet and he looked dynamic last year. And the Gillman record watch is over. He passed Reynolds on rushing touchdowns last week and tied him on total touchdowns, so the next one is the record, and I bet he will get three.

Tech's staff has no Bobby, no Bob, no Robert. So we go to the derivatives. Robb Rosenthal is an associate athletic director for compliance; squint hard enough and Robb sort of looks like Bob. Robert Smith is a player, No. 53, one assisted tackle against Montana State and no listed position, which as a player is not nearly as powerful. Level zero, with an asterisk.

Prince Zombo. Dax Iverson. Greg Fotinopoulos. Fagali'i Leatutufu, and we know apostrophe-i names are ballers. Moon Ashby. Deacon Hill. Rambo Mageo, on the offensive line, which is where a Rambo belongs. Bretton Stone. Fisher Brown and River Moore, who we will probably find on the Clark Fork after the game. Moe Passi, honorable mention only, because he's a linebacker and not a quarterback, a real missed opportunity. Helaman Ofahengaue, a hell-of-a-name for a linebacker, exceeded only by Rambo. Two Jaggers, Nieves and Tavai, spelled two ways. Adonis Vaughn. Heck of another all-name roster.

Southern Dixie Tech comes in slim. Three Browns from three states, two Smiths (one of them the Robert above, who has no data of any kind), three Joneses, two Turners, two Jaggers spelled differently and two Brumfields on the staff, none of it confirmable as blood. Suspected zero. Montana carries three confirmed sets, and I intend to run this number against every opponent until somebody beats it.

The Gillmans, Eli and Monte, both out of Dassel, Minnesota. The Paines, Dylan and Ashton, both out of Tumwater, Washington. And the Beaners, Brock and Brady, twins out of Anacortes, Washington, both safeties, and as of this week both starting in the secondary. Two brothers starting in one secondary is a structural advantage. Add in the twin factor and I'm counting it at two. Twin telepathic communication in the secondary, I'll be monitoring it. Montana also carries three Davises and two Joneses from five different hometowns, which I am listing as unconfirmed by choice. I have not asked, and I will not be asking. Week 2 Brother Index: Griz 4 confirmed and 3 suspected, visitors 0 and 0, because I make the rules. We should almost always have the advantage. That's the point.

Max Grizzell, quarterback, Southern Dixie Tech, who will spend Saturday afternoon in Washington-Grizzly Stadium. Can you imagine seeing Grizzell on the back of our jersey? That's the whole pitch.

Two entries this week, and I know both of them.

A Conrad kid. At the 2002 Class B meet in Missoula she set an all-class 400 record, 55.99, and scored 55 points by herself, the first girl in state history to do it. At Montana she won the Big Sky 400 seven straight times, indoor and out, twelve conference titles in all, four more than any Griz track athlete before or since. A back injury cost her two seasons in the middle of it. Her last race as a Grizzly was the 2008 NCAA regional final, and her back wasn't much better then either. She runs the family ranch outside Conrad now with her husband, and by her own account the only sprinting she does is after calves. She's been a friend of my family for as long as I can remember. Look her up for all your photography needs.

I played high school ball with her brother Lee, who I am still sad to report we lost to the Bobcats. He lettered four years as a tight end from 2011 through 2014 and started games, a run I supported despite great personal anguish. Credit to me. If Bobby 1.0 hadn't ended in 2009 and Pflu hadn't lost interest, Lee would have likely been a Griz. He might even admit that. One more L attributable to that time period we don't talk about. As if losing one Perkins wasn't enough, the bigger crisis is that Lee and his wife Taylor have five sons and the Griz are in the trail position on all five. Here's hoping they end up in the family you choose. We'll have to work on them.

Loni Perkins. That Gal Rocked.

A West Oakland kid. Two-time Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, the program's all-time steals leader with 265 (he had the best speed and defensive instincts of anyone I ever ran up and down with during my ignominious failed attempt to walk on), three NCAA tournament appearances (Syracuse still gives me nightmares), and 93-35 over four years and 6-2 against the Cats. He broke his foot in an open gym in September of his senior year, turned down the redshirt Coach Tinks offered him, played at about half speed, and Montana went 25-7 and 19-1 in the league anyway. The NBA: Eight games with the Cavs, his first bucket assisted on by none other than LeBron James, and he's still balling, having just completed a twelfth season overseas.

Will Cherry. That Guy Rocked.

Kris Nord goes in with them, 42 years coaching Griz tennis and golf, and his story belongs to the people who knew him. These two I did.

Jeff Choate spent the week telling reporters Montana didn't want to play Nevada. It's lame and he sucks. He is 7-19 at Nevada and 2-13 in the Mountain West. Focus on that. Credit to Kent though, I haven't seen a dunk like that since the aforementioned Lebron.

An update on my Cotton Eyed Joe Manifesto. Brigham Weyrauch, better known as DJ Briggs or even better yet the man who presses play at Washington-Grizzly, found the post and personally guaranteed we would hear it this weekend. "Let me reassure you we won't stop playing it. At all 9 games I was in charge of music last season, it got played." Noted. Cotton Eyed Joe plays Saturday, or my advocacy campaign goes on the offensive.

There is no case for Southern Dixie Tech this week and I'm not going to make one.

Good Guys 55, Southern Dixie Tech 3.

Go Griz