Season to date, every snap, FBS games included. Success rate is the share of plays that stay on schedule. Explosive plays are runs of 15 or more and completions of 20 or more. Yards per dropback charges the sacks. Points added is CFBD's expected points. Last season's FCS medians: success .412 and .427 allowed, explosive 7.8 percent, 6.30 yards a dropback and 6.49 allowed.

1:00, ESPN+, Stewart Stadium, and the Train Bell is on the line. Idaho State has won the last two meetings, its first back-to-back wins in the series since 1983 and 1984. The Bengals started 4-0 and have lost two straight, the second on a Cal Poly touchdown with 40 seconds left. "We gotta be better, we need to run the fricking ball," Cody Hawkins said this week. They run on 43.4 percent of their snaps, tenth in the league.

The defense is the reason Idaho State is still second in the table above. It allows 5.11 yards a dropback, more than a yard better than anyone else in the league. It sacks the quarterback on 7.6 percent of dropbacks and wrecks a play in the backfield on 10.7 percent of snaps, and both of those rank first.

Weber State has given the ball away 17 times, the most in the league, and is 3-1 in it anyway. Against Idaho, Spencer Ferguson ran 75 yards on the first snap, and he and Seth Rigtrup both went over 100. Nate Dahle, the freshman, threw it 19 times. Idaho State's defensive coordinator, Grant Duff, coached at Weber State from 2014 through 2024 and knows the choice: "If you load the box, they're gonna try to sling it around and take advantage of one-on-one matchups. If you play a light box, they're gonna run it right down your throat."

Kalshi has the Bengals by 5.4 on the road and our line has them by 4.2.

5:00, Scripps and ESPN+, the red turf in Cheney. Montana State comes off a bye and its first loss, 35-34 at Idaho on the last play. Justin Lamson missed that game and the one before it, and he is back on the depth chart with Adam Jones and Caden Dowler. "As far as where we've been over the last month, it's the best scenario we've been in," Brent Vigen said Monday.

The Cats stay on schedule on .545 of their snaps and make 8.40 yards a dropback, and both lead the league. Eastern Washington's defense gives up an explosive play on 12.3 percent of snaps and 6.78 yards a carry, the most in the league on both. Its offense gives up a sack on 7.4 percent of dropbacks, also the most, and Nate Bell threw for 334 yards and four touchdowns against Northern Colorado anyway. Montana State has won five straight in the series and has four wins on the red turf, more than any other visitor. "I expect them to be a little bit more angry knowing that they didn't have a game to take it out on somebody last weekend," Aaron Best said. "Hopefully they don't take it all out on us."

Kalshi has the Cats by 17.6 and we have 15.0. The ratings carry two games Montana State played without Lamson, and the market has a week of news that he's back, which is a fair reason for it to sit higher. I'm laying it with the Cats.

5:00, ESPN+, the Skydome, and Northern Arizona's 100th Homecoming. The Lumberjacks beat Montana 49-44 on Saturday behind six Ty Pennington touchdowns, four running, one throwing and one catching, and are eighth in the Stats Perform poll, their first top-10 ranking since 2013. "Ty is not only the toughest player in America, he is the best player in America," Brian Wright said after the game.

Northern Arizona has 18 takeaways, the most in FCS, and a turnover margin of plus-11, best in the league by seven. Its defense allows success on .525 of snaps, the worst rate in the league. It wins on the ball.

Portland State hands it plays to win. The Vikings' offense loses a play in the backfield, a sack, a run for a loss, an interception or a fumble the defense falls on, on 11.9 percent of snaps, the most in the league. They get stuffed on 23.2 percent of their runs, also the most. Tyrese Smith, the third Viking quarterback to start this season, won his first start against Utah Tech and is listed first again. "We understand that today was not good enough to play with the top-five percent, so we've got work to do," Chris Fisk said after that one. Northern Arizona played most of the Montana game without its top two running backs, Quran Gossett and Kenveon Stone.

Kalshi had the Lumberjacks by 16.5 on Friday and by 19.8 on Saturday morning, within a tenth of a point of our line.

6:00, ESPN+, Nottingham Field. Cal Poly's three Big Sky wins came by nine points combined, the last on Anthony Grigsby Jr.'s touchdown pass to Misa Paiau with 40 seconds left in Pocatello, the program's first win there since 2007. Northern Colorado lost at Eastern Washington despite running for 281 yards and holding the ball for 38 minutes. "We'll likely be the underdogs for whatever that's worth," Ed Lamb said this week.

They are, by 2.99, against a pick'em on our line, which leaves the gap less than a hundredth of a point short of a best bet. Northern Colorado's defense allows success on .258 of passing downs, the snaps where everyone knows a throw is coming, second in the league to Montana State. Cal Poly gives up a sack on 6.6 percent of dropbacks, second-most. The Bears have six giveaways, second-fewest. Brayten Silbor and Kenny Lueth were both banged up in Cheney, and Keegan Patterson finished the comeback drive with a 1-yard touchdown; the depth chart lists Silbor, Patterson and Lueth in that order.

1:00, Scripps and ESPN+. Kalshi has Montana by 17.3, we have 16.8, and the computers lean Idaho by half a point. I'm laying it with the Griz, and the case is in the week's scouting report.