Across the Big Sky: the computers lay the points
Week of Sept. 26. Five best bets, and all five are favorites.
The computers lay the points
Week of Sept. 26. Five best bets, and all five are favorites.
Across the Big Sky is the new Thursday post: every Big Sky game, every week, picked against Kalshi's line. Our line comes from the Bobby Blend, a combination of the well-known computer ratings and our own proprietary power ranking, which is still in testing. When the two lines are three points or more apart, it's a best bet.
Either the computers found something, or the computers are about to learn something.
The board
Northern Arizona is living on the ball
Northern Arizona at Montana State, 8:30, ESPN2. No. 18 at No. 1 in the Stats Perform poll, and it is Homecoming in Bozeman.
Northern Arizona is 3-1 and has taken the ball away 12 times in four games. Six of those came in one afternoon against Incarnate Word. Success rate is just the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, and the Lumberjacks' offense succeeds on .403 of its snaps while their defense allows .502. That is a net of −.098. Every other Big Sky team with a winning record is on the plus side of zero, and Montana State is at +.153, the best in the league.
Northern Arizona has converted 13 of 49, .265, the worst in the league. Montana State has converted 23 of 43, .535, the best. A defense that lives on takeaways can win a game in Bozeman. It usually needs the other team to cooperate, and the Cats have given it away three times in four games.
Brian Wright, a former Montana State offensive coordinator, knows the building. "We're going to have to play our best football game for sure," he said this week. "We've yet to put that all together." Northern Arizona leads the all-time series 28-26, has lost four straight to the Cats and last won in Bozeman in 2016. Montana State has won 18 straight, a program record.
The case for the Lumberjacks is last Saturday. Montana State beat Central Connecticut, a team the Blend had 96th going in, by five at home, against a closing line of 41.5.
It pains me to lay seventeen with the Cats. The computers made me do it, and our line has them by 21.0.
The snaps say Cal Poly
Cal Poly has the best offense on this week's board outside Bozeman. The Mustangs succeed on .480 of their snaps, second only to Montana State, and Eastern Washington's defense allows .498. Cal Poly also lost at home to San Diego of the Pioneer League last week, 38-35, after getting stuffed twice at the 1 in the fourth quarter.
That loss dropped Cal Poly from 35th to 58th in the Blend, and the Blend is why our line has Eastern Washington by 8.6 at Roos Field. Eastern Washington has lost to Northern Arizona, South Dakota and Washington, and beaten Northern Iowa. The ratings like that résumé more than the snap counts do. I'm siding with the computers over one season of success rates.
Keep-away against a team that doesn't need the ball
Southern Utah holds the ball 35.6 minutes a game, the most in the league, and runs it on 62.5 percent of its plays, also the most. Against Montana in Week Zero the Thunderbirds held it for 43:34 and lost by seven. Idaho State holds it 25.4 minutes, the least, and does not seem to mind: 3-0 with a defense allowing a .354 success rate, the stingiest in the league.
Cody Hawkins has not forgotten last year's 46-24 loss in Cedar City. "A good, playoff-caliber football team beat the tar out of us, rightfully so," he said Tuesday.
Southern Utah is 1-3, lost at St. Thomas last week on a failed two-point try, and plays at Homecoming with Will Burns at quarterback. Idaho State has taken the ball away seven times in three games. The Bengals lead the series 12-8-1 and are 2-5-1 in Cedar City, which is the one number on this page that argues for the home team.
Two new coaches, one plan
Chris Fisk came from Central Washington, where he went 48-22. Eric Kjar came from Corner Canyon High School in Draper, where he went 112-10. Kjar's team is 2-2 and beat Northern Colorado on a blocked extra point with three seconds left. Fisk's is 0-4, and at Oregon, down 49-0 at halftime, it was offered 10-minute quarters for the second half and turned them down. "We came to play 60 minutes, regardless of the outcome," Fisk said. It ended 84-0.
I respect it. I'm also not taking the points with it. Portland State has scored 67 points in four games and given up 215. The Vikings have turned it over nine times, tied with Utah Tech for the most in the league, and convert .281 on third down. Weber State converts .500, second only to Montana State. Kjar said after the Northwestern State win that the passing game has been frustrating him, which is the kind of complaint a coach gets to make while converting half his third downs. Weber leads the series 25-15 and has won the last three.
First date
These two have never played. Utah Tech is in its first Big Sky season, 0-4 after opening against four straight ranked teams, and 1-23 all-time against the schools now in this conference. The Trailblazers have turned it over nine times and taken it away twice. Minus-seven is the worst margin in the league.
Northern Colorado is 1-3 and it is Homecoming in Greeley. The Bears hold the ball 33.5 minutes a game, second only to Southern Utah, which is a useful habit against an offense that has scored 44 points in four games. Ed Lamb is 2-0 against this program from his Southern Utah days, and after beating Division II Northeastern State in overtime last week he said something coaches rarely say out loud: "I began to doubt just myself and my instincts." Honest man. His team only has to be better than a turnover machine.
Montana at UC Davis
8:00, Scripps and ESPN+. Kalshi has UC Davis by 3.5, we have them by 2.1, and I'm taking the Griz and the points; the case is in Friday's scouting report.
Bobby Blend Power Ranking
- 1Montana State4-0, 1-01st in FCS
- 2Idaho State3-0, 0-09th in FCS
- 3Montana3-1, 1-014th in FCS
- 4UC Davis3-1, 1-016th in FCS
- 5Northern Arizona3-1, 1-018th in FCS
- 6Eastern Washington1-3, 0-135th in FCS
- 7Southern Utah1-3, 0-142nd in FCS
- 8Weber State2-2, 1-048th in FCS
- 9Idaho0-4, 0-153rd in FCS
- 10Cal Poly2-2, 1-058th in FCS
- 11Northern Colorado1-3, 0-170th in FCS
- 12Portland State0-4, 0-1106th in FCS
- 13Utah Tech0-4, 0-1107th in FCS
The record
It starts Saturday.