> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.bobbyball406.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # I stand corrected - URL: https://www.bobbyball406.com/i-stand-corrected/ - Published: 2026-10-11T23:19:22.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-12T15:48:38.000Z - Description: Northern Arizona 49, Montana 44. Two scores called back, a kickoff return, the busiest whistle in the Big Sky, and an embattled defense looking for answers. - Author: Schuyler Watt - Tags: Sunday Reaction, Griz Football Bobby BallWeek 6 Sunday reactionWalkup Skydome # I stand *corrected* Northern Arizona 49, Montana 44\. Two scores called back, a kickoff return, the busiest whistle in the Big Sky, and an embattled defense looking for answers. Montana's postgame win probability**84.1%**Five of six times we win that game. Defense disruption rate Saturday**4.3%**Worse than 90% of FCS single games The only one since 2014**1 of 2,423**Two TDs called back, two bailouts, same game Different starters in our secondary**10**Five starters weren't in the opener's lineup Bobby 3.0’s first conference loss. Of course it came in the Walkup Skydome, where NAU has now won four of the last five. We lost by five (seven really). We outgained them 489 yards to 458 with the 40 yards of kneel-downs added back. We scored every time we got inside their 40, but they scored a touchdown every time they got inside ours. Five lead changes, and then a backbreaker third quarter. Montana is 5-2 and 3-1. Without making any excuses, Saturday was not nearly as bad as it looked. The high-variance stuff all hit for the Lumberjacks. NAU pulled out all the stops, and our defense was not up to it. On their third play of the game they ran a hook-and-ladder for the first down. In the third quarter a receiver threw a touchdown to their quarterback. I warned that this staff ran a fake field goal at Idaho State, and they still beat us on the tricks. By 10:23 Saturday night I had it down to this: > @schuylerwatt on X[https://x.com/schuylerwatt/status/2109137872045650118](https://x.com/schuylerwatt/status/2109137872045650118?ref=bobbyball406.com) CFBD's postgame win probability takes every snap result both teams ran and asks who usually wins that game. By that count, the game script Saturday would predict a Montana win five times in six. It sucks to lose. It sucks even more when the sixth one is the one that counts. This was a crappy Skydome game, and we have had plenty of those. Stop me when this sounds familiar: a kickoff return, an opportune interception for a short field, highly impactful penalties, evident altitude fatigue. Even still, on most days the metrics say the Griz should win it. A game Montana wins five times in six Montana's live chance to win after every score · house model Montana's live win probability 0%25%50%75%100%KickQ2HalfQ4Final7-07-724-21, half24-2824-3532-3532-4239-4239-49Graves, 100-yard kickoff returnCFBD postgame win probability,from both teams' plays: Montana 84.1%0%25%50%75%100%KickQ2HalfQ4Final7-032-4239-42Ringed: Graves, 100-yardkickoff returnCFBD postgame win probability,from both teams' plays: Montana 84.1% The kickoff return was the sixth. The live line follows the scoreboard: it knows the score, the clock and where the ball is, and it moves every time somebody scores. CFBD's postgame number never looks at the scoreboard. It's built from how well each team played, snap by snap. When those two split this far apart it points to a scoreboard that stopped following the play-by-play: touchdowns erased and drives kept alive by flags. Montana's net cost from the flags was 18th worst of 772 FCS team-games this season. Even after all that, one bad special teams decision hurt the most. I will never understand why we didn't kick the ball out of the end zone when we have a guy who has done just that 22 times in 25 tries in Missoula, which is not at 7,000 feet. NAU set up a great return, crushed a couple of our coverage guys, and their returner squirted through some poor tackling. We should have never given him the opportunity. Bobby 3.0 put his finger on it afterward: "giving up a kick return. I mean, that's what really hurt us." We had just cut it to three. As the ball was kicked, our win probability was 36.7 percent. Thirteen seconds later it plummeted to 9.0\. Ballgame. [Subscribe free](#/portal/signup) 01 ## Nearly zero defensive disruption is the #1 reason for concern The median FCS defense wrecks 9.8 percent of plays in a game. We wrecked 3 of NAU's 70 snaps Saturday, which counts sacks, TFLs, interceptions and fumbles recovered. That’s 4.3 percent. And that isn’t good enough. Across all FCS teams, nine of every ten single-game performances this season beat ours. The defense that smoked UC Davis couldn't stop anybody, and that is the part that worries me well past Saturday, because the drop didn't start in Flagstaff. The defense has stopped wrecking plays Share of snaps ending in a sack, a run for a loss, an interception or a fumble taken Montana's defenseEarlier seasonsFCS median 202311.1%202510.0%2026, seven games6.9%2026 FCS median 9.2%Saturday at NAU4.3%single-game median 9.75%202311.1%202510.0%2026, seven games6.9%2026 FCS median 9.2%Saturday at NAU4.3%single-game median 9.75% Saturday's three: one sack, one run for a loss, one fumble recovery. Some of it, to my eyes, is that teams hold the sh\*t out of us and it never gets called. We have to do something about it. We blitzed plenty Saturday, but with five, and five never got there. I said fit the quarterback up the middle. They ran 25 of their 28 real carries up the middle, including all his rushing touchdowns. His coach, Brian Wright: "Ty is not only the toughest player in America, he is the best player in America." I'm not going to argue with him this week. They threw on first down, and it kept working Northern Arizona on first-and-ten · its first six games against Saturday First six gamesSaturdayMontana allowed, coming in Threw it48%74%The throw worked55.1%69.6%Montana allowed 53.8% coming inThrew it48%74%The throw worked55.1%69.6%Montana allowed 53.8% coming in 23 of 31 first downs were throws, and the throws netted 10.17 yards a dropback, up from 7.64. They stayed on schedule on 57.1 percent of their snaps, and we forced one punt. On their last scoring drive, ten snaps of eleven worked. Health is part of it. Saturday's defense started five players who weren't in the opener's lineup. Brady Beaner, a four-game starter at safety, didn't play, and neither did Elijah Brady or Brock Beaner. Gabe Stroud made his first start at corner. Ten different players have now started in our secondary in seven games. 02 ## We need more variance on defense Healthy or not, the missing disruption is the durable concern, and I think it's the scheme. We're trying to be the bend-but-don't-break defense: sit back in a shell, keep everything in front, let the field shrink and win on math and efficiency. It worked against UC Davis. It didn't work in Corvallis and it didn't work Saturday. I'm not sure our thinned secondary is something to lean on. With a great defense you sit back and let the law of large numbers work in your favor. A bad defense has to rely on disruption, which causes variance. You get burned more, and you also make more negative plays that turn a bad afternoon into something you can survive. A football game is a small sample. One negative play gets an offense off-schedule, and off-schedule offenses are much worse. The median FCS offense this season stays on schedule on 45.0 percent of its standard downs and 28.6 percent of its off-schedule downs, so one negative play cuts the next snap's odds by more than a third. And that’s the strategy: we can’t win in the long run, but one disruptive play can end a drive. Kent Baer ran this defense from 2018 through 2022, and we were aggressive and disruptive. His last two Griz defenses led the Big Sky in sacks. The 2021 group had 44 of them, fourth in FCS, and led the country in interceptions. That's a lot more than Colonel Mustard (Eric Sanders and his yellow hats) has done so far. So far, we resemble Sanders's defenses from Eastern Washington, which wrecked 4.7 percent of snaps in 2024, the fewest of any FCS defense in our data. His 2025 group got to 9.0, still under the FCS median. This year's Griz D is at 6.9\. Those EWU defenses finished ninth and eighth of 12 Big Sky teams in scoring defense. Baer had us second in the Big Sky in total defense in 2022 and is a current senior defensive analyst for the team. It might be time to let him have more say in the game plan. > @406\_Gainz on X[https://x.com/406\_Gainz/status/2109073795688628584](https://x.com/406%5FGainz/status/2109073795688628584?ref=bobbyball406.com) 03 ## The flags flipped the score and the math With 1:47 left, Eli went in from 13 yards and the touchdown came back for offensive pass interference on Landon Ransom-Goelz. My eyes said that was a bad call. On Friday, replying to a reader about the Quiet Whistle, I wrote: "Good thing we're on the road. We get the better whistle away from home." Saturday, the minute that touchdown came off the board: > @schuylerwatt on X[https://x.com/schuylerwatt/status/2109077000266961261](https://x.com/schuylerwatt/status/2109077000266961261?ref=bobbyball406.com) That was the third score we had called back. Early in the fourth, a hold on Titus Rohrer wiped Monte Gillman's touchdown from the 1, though Lekeldrick Bridges scored on the next snap. Back in the first quarter, Brooks Davis took a catch to the 1, and a personal foul on Austin Buehler marched us back to the 16\. First-and-goal at the 1 is a touchdown for this team. Montana hasn’t been stopped inside the 5 a single time this year: 18 drives, 18 touchdowns. That one ended in a field goal. On the other side of the ball, on two separate drives NAU threw incomplete on third-and-9 and on third-and-14, and flags on Dunn and Orlandi made them first downs anyway. Both of those drives ended in touchdowns, two and three plays later. Our defense got three third-down stops on the field in the second half, but two of those drives continued. Watching games every week, plenty of Big Sky officials keep their whistles quiet on the very same types of plays. It was just a bad day in the Skydome. On the stat sheet the flags were a wash on yards. Ours landed on two touchdowns, a first-and-goal at the 1, and two stops on third-and-long. Until Saturday, no Big Sky team since 2014 had two touchdowns called back and two drive-extending bailouts in the same game. Those bailouts were worth fourteen points for them. Our offense had two touchdowns turned into field goals. That's eight taken from us. That's a 22-point swing, in a game we lost by five. The expected-points version has the penalties swinging the game 16.0 points. I don't know if anybody at the conference office read my article [The Quiet Whistle](https://www.bobbyball406.com/the-quiet-whistle/) that came out last weekend. Saturday was not a great first week after it. 04 ## Griz Nation doesn’t want to see this Bobby in stripes The Bobby Alert is our weekly sweep of the other sideline for a Bob, a Bobby or a Robert. Saturday's white hat's first name is Robert. His crew leads the league in flags, judgment calls, penalty yards, and third- and fourth-down bailouts. His crews walk off 126.2 penalty yards a game; the median Big Sky crew is 98.2. Saturday's white hat throws more flags than anyone in the Big Sky Every Big Sky referee with 10+ regular-season games since 2021 · one dot each median 10.94Saturday's white hat13.59No. 212.67No. 311.56No. 411.38No. 510.98No. 610.90No. 710.89No. 810.85No. 910.38No. 1010.371011121314accepted flags a gameMontana's five gamesunder him, since 2023Bailouts against us: 8-0Scores wiped: 3-0median 10.94White hat13.59No. 212.67No. 311.56No. 411.38No. 510.98No. 610.90No. 710.89No. 810.85No. 910.38No. 1010.371011121314accepted flags a gameMontana under him since 2023:bailouts against us 8-0, scores wiped 3-0 Shuffle the games at random and the top referee lands this high 2.8 percent of the time. With Bobby on the whistle, Big Sky teams draw 1.27 times as many flags, on average, as they do in their other games that season. It’s even worse for Montana, which draws 1.57 times as many flags in games he’s officiated: 9.0 a game, against 5.75 overall. He has worked five Montana games since 2023, with the same core crew every time. In those games the bailouts run 8-0 against our defense, and the scores wiped off the board run 3-0 against our offense. We ran into the absolute worst crew possible for a game at the Skydome. Hopefully we won’t see them again this year. 05 ## The offense was exceptional, minus the third quarter Montana stayed on schedule on 55.2 percent of its snaps, better than 93 percent of the single games played in FCS this year. That includes the abysmal third quarter: punt, interception, punt. Eleven plays, 29 yards. NAU won those fifteen minutes 14-0\. Bobby 3.0, after: "I thought really at the start of the third quarter that if we did something on offense, we could have taken that game kind of by the horns." He's right. I said keep throwing to Brooks Davis. Northern Arizona apparently read the same paragraph, because it put two men on him much of the game, neutralizing our best pass catcher. So the ball went to Landon Ransom-Goelz, seven catches for 128\. One of them went 70 yards for a touchdown. We need to come up with a plan for dealing with the double teams Brooks is sure to face after our upcoming opponents see the film. I trust Coach Pease can handle that. Two weeks before we got there, that NAU defense went to Bozeman and held Montana State to 21 points until the last two minutes. NAU's offense, which didn't get one bailout call that day, scored 14, and it got inside the Cats' 5 three times and turned it over on downs every time. Our offense put 42 on that defense. Without the bailouts, we win Saturday comfortably. 06 ## Rent-Free Bobcat of the Week Montana State had a bye. @BobFrapplesMT spent the evening in Griz replies anyway, starting here: > @BobFrapplesMT on X[https://x.com/BobFrapplesMT/status/2109105199772246424](https://x.com/BobFrapplesMT/status/2109105199772246424?ref=bobbyball406.com) And finishing here, hours later: > @BobFrapplesMT on X[https://x.com/BobFrapplesMT/status/2109155581923844549](https://x.com/BobFrapplesMT/status/2109155581923844549?ref=bobbyball406.com) In between he posted #bobhasreceipts. To the many Cat fans running the transitive win property this weekend: you may want to withhold judgment until next Saturday's result, because the Vandals are headed to Missoula. Pretty odd to hoot and holler on the same afternoon the Idaho team you just lost to goes on the road and gets waxed by Weber State. Bob has won this award before, and this time he did it on a week off. Rent-free. The rev share is still at 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59812, and this week we accept receipts. 07 ## The FTC Tally The running count of Bobcat fans chanting about us at their own games, against ours chanting about them. Bozeman had the week off, so there is nothing to report from Bobcat Stadium, and those singing it at their television on Saturday night have not self-reported. The only chant anybody posted out of Flagstaff was the Skydome's "overrated" after the failed onside kick, and this week, we earned it. Cats 15, Griz 0\. Mony Mony. 08 ## Most Unhinged eGriz Comment of the Week The best meltdown on the board, poster unnamed. With the game slipping late, one poster asked: "Is it to early to start the Bobby Kennedy runs a SOFT program thread?" Moments later, he answered himself: "Yes, but nau is a motivated and very good team." Right after the final he started it anyway, under the title "Bobby Ball 3.0 - BK IS SOFT": "Guy doesnt understand Montana or hard nosed football... Guy will leave for a coordinator job at Stanford in a heartbeat." It drew no reactions. Later that evening: "😂 Thats fair! Im still on the give BK 3 years but God damn!" 09 ## Restore the Six, Entry No. 8 A new argument every week for why the NCAA should give back the six games it vacated from Montana's 2011 season. This week the argument is already sitting in Montana's record book. The NCAA took the wins. The record book kept the points. Brody McKnight's 2011 season is in the book in full, and a good share of his points that year came in games that officially never happened. His career extra points are the Montana record, and the count includes every kick from those games. Take the six games out and he still holds it, by one, over a tie between Chris Snyder and a kicker you'll meet again in a minute. As my friend and fellow alum Steve would say, “Merry Grizmas to all, and to all a Brody McKnight.” Give us the six games back. 10 ## That Guy Rocked Eli Gillman went in from a yard out right before halftime Saturday for his 420th career point, a Montana record, and the man he passed had held it for nineteen years. He was a Helena High receiver who went to a Griz camp for quarterbacks, backs and receivers. By his own account, his coach told Bobby Hauck, "This guy can kick," and he made nine of ten with linemen heckling him. He left Missoula with 413 points. As a freshman, against Northern Arizona in Missoula, on fourth down at their 14, the play-by-play has him running it in for a touchdown. Then he kicked the extra point. He also punted, and he completed his only pass. All-Big Sky four times, twice an All-American. Miami signed him and cut Jay Feely to keep him. He made a Pro Bowl, kicked the longest field goal in Dolphins history, and finished his NFL career with 999 points. When he was done, people asked what he'd do next. "I said I was going to disappear," he told MTN. "People were laughing but it's pretty true." A ranch near Plentywood, and in his words, "just the average Montana boy." Dan Carpenter. That guy rocked. 11 ## Last Call Everything we hope this team can accomplish is still on the table. It starts with Idaho next Saturday at Washington-Grizzly. The Vandals are 1-5\. Little Brown Stein on the line. We get the home whistle back, which I honestly can’t say is a good thing. To beat us, Northern Arizona needed a kickoff return from its own end zone, two of our touchdowns taken back, multiple bailouts on third-and-long, the busiest whistle in the Big Sky, trick plays, thin air, and the best player in America, according to his coach. If that's the formula for a narrow victory over the Griz, I feel pretty good going forward. At least on offense. Go Griz. Bobby Ball · Griz football by Schuyler Watt · Numbers from both schools' official stat files, CFBD play-by-play and postgame win probability, cleaned through the house rules, the house live win-probability and expected-points models, Big Sky officiating data since 2014, and the 2026 FCS baselines built for this column.